Newcastle, Oklahoma 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

213
FXUS64 KOUN 191113
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
613 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 508 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

 - Hot and humid conditions expected this weekend into next week.

 - Rain chances will be near zero through the middle of the
   upcoming week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1244 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

Upper ridge builds north today, dominating the weather across much
of the southern Plains. Meanwhile, veered low level flow will bring
in warmer air from the west and abundant sunshine will result in an
additional degree or two to afternoon highs today compared to Friday.

Model trends are keeping a bit higher dewpoints over much of the
area compared to yesterdays runs and that puts parts of southeast
Oklahoma and northern Oklahoma into advisory level wrt afternoon
heat indices. Breezy south winds continue, which may aid in giving
some relief to the heat, at least in the shade.

These breezy south winds and higher dewpoints will also keep
temperatures rather warm overnight with some areas just barely
dropping out of the 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 1244 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

Similar conditions setting up for Sunday with perhaps another degree
added to the afternoon highs. Portions of central Oklahoma may join
in the century club with afternoon highs approaching 100 degrees.
NBM actually shows even higher dewpoints for Sunday afternoon,
especially east of Hwy 81. Not sure I completely buy off on this,
but if this does occur a bigger part of the area will need a heat
advisory.

After another warm night Monday night similar daytime conditions
expected Monday with much of the area flirting with or exceeding
heat advisory level heat indices.

Lee troughing continues through this period as well, so breezy south
winds will also continue through the Plains. Again giving some
relief in the shade if you are outside.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 1244 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

Through the middle of the upcoming week upper ridge will remain
dominate feature from the southern Plains into the southeast and
perhaps beyond. However, some indications are that the ridge may
retrograde sufficiently late Wednesday into Thursday to allow
shortwave troughs that lift north from Mexico through the High
Plains to shift far enough east to bring a low chance of rain the
the Panhandles and perhaps northwest Oklahoma. Otherwise, summer-
like conditions are likely to continue.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 508 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

All of our terminals should stay in the VFR category through the
forecast period. A surface low circulation lee of the Central
Rockies will tighten the pressure gradient across our terminals
resulting in increasing surface winds out of the south at 15 kts
sustained with gusts at 20-25 kts by 16Z. Surface winds will back
slightly south-southeast decreasing to 10 kts around 01Z across
most of our terminals. However, surface winds across our furthest
western two terminals KCSM & KWWR will likely remain gusty beyond
01Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  97  76  97  76 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK        102  76 102  75 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX 101  77 100  77 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK          100  75 100  74 /   0  10   0   0
Ponca City OK     97  76  98  75 /   0  10   0   0
Durant OK         98  77  98  77 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for OKZ005>008-011>013-031-032-042-043-047-048-051-052.

TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...68